The Taste of Import Substitution

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In 2022, the domestic IT industry experienced a major transformation. After the departure of foreign vendors, the vacant niches began to be rapidly occupied by suppliers of domestic solutions. Dmitry Puchkov, Deputy General Director of CorpSoft24, told RSpectr about the impact of the 1C segment in Russia in the past year and how to calculate the prospects for the development of business automation in the near future.

GAME CONDITIONS

Currently, 90-95% of small businesses in Russia use 1C. In medium-sized businesses, the share of these solutions is approximately 50% in relation to foreign systems. I believe that in 2023, the presence content writing service of the domestic program will increase to 60-65%.

Traditionally, many large Russian companies used SAP, so 1C's position here is not so strong - until the beginning of 2022, it occupied no more than a third of this market. However, now in this segment there is an active transition to Russian systems, and in 2022-2023, most likely, the share of the domestic product will increase to 50%. And in the next five years, it can increase to 75-80%. As we can see,




anti-Russian sanctions, as well as the subsequent import substitution, became the driver for the development of digital projects by Russian vendors

The 1C company and the entire partner community greeted the departure of major competitors from the Russian market with excitement and enthusiasm: SAP, Oracle and Microsoft. There is confidence that even if they want to return, it will not be easy for them to regain their lost positions.

Thanks to import substitution, in 2022 there was a 10-15% growth in revenue in the 1C market compared to last year, next year I expect growth at about the same level. Companies involved in import substitution will work with large clients and will be able to show significantly higher growth.

This situation confirmed the Chinese interpretation of the term “crisis” – both a danger and an opportunity

There are no signs of the crisis ending yet. Moreover, the outgoing year will most likely be its initial phase, and at least another couple of years of turbulence await us. A decline in Russia's GDP is predicted for 2023-2024, followed by a budget deficit, and real inflation rates may exceed 15-20%.

Be that as it may, it is difficult to imagine that small businesses will stop updating 1C:Accounting or buying 1C:Reporting. Large companies will also not stop projects based on the transition to domestic software from foreign systems and services.

It will be more difficult for medium-sized businesses with private capital and 1C partners. In this segment, a reduction in funding is quite possible due to the suspension and transfer of non-core projects, without which it is quite possible to live in the next two or three years.

MARKET REALITIES

Next year we will see a 10% price increase for 1C services. If the average consultant's rate in Moscow is now slightly more than 3 thousand rubles per hour of work, then by the end of next year it will hardly be less than 3.5 thousand rubles. Leading companies will demand 4-4.5 thousand rubles.

The crisis is almost unnoticeable now, but I associate it, first of all, with the high season. For many years now, the end of the calendar year and a couple of months of the new one have been characterized by an exorbitant workload for employees. But the question arises: what will happen in April-May?